Data from and showed BTC/USD making rapid moves within its weekly trading range of around $83,000.
US stocks ticked lower at the open, while gold came off fresh all-time highs of $3,149 per ounce.
Talk of recession began to return to the spotlight ahead of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” due on April 2 and on which he promised to unveil a new round of trade tariffs.
“Equity markets are clearly pricing-in a recession: The S&P 500 is down -2% since Fed rate cuts began in September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an on the topic.
Kobeissi referred to the Federal Reserve easing of financial policy in the form of interest rate cuts — something now on pause but which markets , per data from CME Group’s .
Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
While this would be a clear bullish catalyst for crypto and risk assets, Kobeissi noted that history had not favored strong equities rebounds under similar circumstances.
“In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months,” it continued.
“The AVERAGE post-pivot return is +1% in 6 months.”
S&P 500 performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Trading firm QCP Capital was similarly cautious about the overall market landscape thanks to macroeconomic forces.
“With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse,” it wrote about tariffs in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
“There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.”
BTC price action heads to key resistance
BTC price action thus left market observers keen for stronger signals over momentum, even as fundamental support at $80,000 held firm.
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“Some upside momentum today, but it’s still just a 3-wave move, and resistance is holding strong,” trading channel More Crypto Online about an schematic for the 30-minute chart, adding that “the rally’s got more to prove.”
BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: More Crypto Online/X
Popular trader Jelle noted BTC/USD respecting the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $76,600, as support.
Bitcoin, he , would reclaim $84,500 as its next leg up, having rejected there earlier in the day.
BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
QCP meanwhile shared positive news from investors eyeing possible higher levels to come next.
“On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open,” it reported.
“Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
